My Forecasts For 2024
Why not?
Everything will be dramatic. Storms will have cute names, and reporters will wear helmets even when not reporting from war zones. There will be more storms. Some time around February, there will be a controversy around the naming of storms. Weather forecasters will be given sensitivity training.
There will be a brief government shut-down and much media commentary in the US from late January 2024 into mid-February. Resolution will be achieved via a package of measures including continued but limited (or vice-versa) support for Ukraine. The EU will also confirm its ongoing commitment to promising support for Ukraine.
In March, Israel will declare victory in its war against Hamas and then immediately embark on a policing action aimed at ensuring the stability of the political process in Palestine. Western leaders will issue statements welcoming the restoration of peace in the region. Iran and Russia will announce a mutual stability pact.
COP29 will be hailed as a triumph before it even starts. Delegates attending COP29 — the first COP to be held in an oil refinery — will work through the night to agree a final declaration calling on nations to set targets for achieving a mix of fossil-fuel and renewable energy targets compliant with net-zero targets by 2050.
This will be hailed as “realistic”. Two member states of the AOSIS [Alliance Of Small Island States] will announce during COP29 that they are now completely under water at high tide. Areas of equatorial desert in Africa will be found to have heated into glass. The last polar bear will die of heatstroke.
Climate scientists will express surprise that global warming seems to have accelerated again. Global temperatures over first-quarter 2024 will have already made this the hottest year since records began. Sea levels will rise unexpectedly fast in Summer 2024 as the ice caps melt. Venice will be evacuated and parts of New York City’s subway system will be closed and sealed.
The first “urban wildfire” in a major city will will be traced back to hot tarmac igniting on a freeway. Global migration patterns will indicate a significant move away from the equator and several countries will lay claim to territory in the Antarctic; after frantic diplomacy to prevent a war, the Antarctic Treaty will be declared null and void.
Summer’s music sensation in the US will be the rap song There’s still time if we all act now. We’ll all recognise the lyrics, which will appear on T-shirts and other merchandise. However, the band, Climate Crisis, will break up in in October citing “creative differences”. A major studio will leak that principal CGI has been completed on Max Headroom’s comeback movie.
The Nobel Prize for Literature will be awarded to ChatGPT and the Eurovision Song Contest will be won by Peru.
Something like that, anyway. For more, read this.
